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In a report published September 21, Tom Wojcik links the continuing Strait of Hormuz closure to higher oil prices, fuel disruptions and risks to harvests. Figures in the report are current to September 26, 2026; the effects on later food supplies and winter heating remain developing.
Tom Wojcik’s September 21 report describes how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into oil prices, fuel availability and agricultural risks, with implications for Poland and other countries reliant on imported energy. The report says tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran closed it in March, after US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February.
Wojcik reports that Brent crude reached about $108 a barrel on September 24, after a fragile ceasefire had briefly returned prices to pre-war levels in early summer. He says Iran sent Washington a written proposal on September 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it, according to the report. The article also describes a possible Red Sea shipping risk after Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month.
The disruption has raised costs for shipping and fuel. The report says day rates for some supertankers reached about $860,000 on September 10, compared with less than $100,000 before the war. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, though the report notes the fund is small and its manager says rates could fall if the strait reopens.
Wojcik also connects energy costs to food production. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that shortages could lower yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. In Europe, the report describes potato growers cutting plantings after a glut in 2025, followed by heatwaves and drought. Their organisation expects this year’s harvest to fall 25 percent.
How the Closure Reaches Households
The report’s central point is that a shipping disruption can travel well beyond the energy market. Higher oil and freight costs affect transport, while fertiliser shortages can shape harvests months later. Wojcik argues that countries with limited reserves or few alternative suppliers are more exposed when several supply chains face pressure at once.
For Poland, the issue is especially direct in the author’s account: the country borders Ukraine, relies on coal and imported gas for heating, and is increasing military spending with borrowed money. The report does not quantify how much the Hormuz closure will add to Polish household bills. It does show why fuel costs, food prices and winter energy supply are being watched together.
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From War to European Supply Risks
Wojcik frames the current disruption against a longer reliance on suppliers and trade routes instead of larger domestic buffers. He writes that when one dependency failed, countries often turned to another. That is his interpretation of the wider pattern; the report’s immediate account focuses on the effects of the Gulf conflict and the closure of Hormuz.
It also describes pressures outside the Gulf. Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, which the report says has pushed Russian refining output to a two-decade low. Moscow restricted fuel exports, and US diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on September 10. In France, official figures cited by Wojcik show 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a shortage; many affected stations were TotalEnergies outlets whose €1.99-per-litre petrol cap drew customers faster than they could be resupplied.
“Sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity.”
— World Food Programme, as cited by Tom Wojcik
Harvest and Heating Risks Ahead
The report says the food impact may arrive with a delay: crops already planted can make supply look steady before lower yields appear. The scale and timing of any harvest losses remain uncertain, as do the duration of the Hormuz closure and the prospects for a ceasefire. The supplied figures do not establish how much prices will rise in Poland or whether winter heating supplies will be sufficient. The report’s potato and grain discussion is also incomplete in the available source text, which ends while describing wheat prices.
The Strait and Coming Harvests
The next developments to watch are whether shipping through Hormuz resumes, whether diplomatic efforts produce a lasting ceasefire, and how fuel and fertiliser availability changes. Later 2026 harvests will provide a clearer measure of agricultural effects. Wojcik’s report gives figures through September 26, but does not specify a date for a follow-up or forecast when the shipping route will reopen.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since March, cutting tanker traffic by more than 90 percent and contributing to pressures on fuel, shipping and agriculture.
What did Iran propose to Washington?
According to the report, Iran sent Washington a written proposal on September 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it.
Could the closure affect food supplies?
The FAO warns, as cited in the report, that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The extent of those effects is not yet clear.
Are French fuel stations running out of fuel?
Wojcik cites official figures showing 15 percent of French stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20. The government ruled out a national shortage; the report says many affected stations were TotalEnergies outlets facing unusually high demand.
Source: hn
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